Ninety Days to Judgement
Three Months To Make or Break Trump’s Re-election
Ninety days ago would have been January 5th. In the United States, we were vaguely aware of some new virus floating around somewhere in China and eastern Asia, but we were still two weeks away from this country’s first confirmed COVID-19 case [1]. In Washington, coronavirus was not even on the Trump administration’s radar as it was busy trying to justify assassinating an Iranian military commander while simultaneously discouraging potential witnesses from testifying in the House’s impeachment proceedings. There was no talk of ventilator shortages, PPE supplies being exhausted or entire sectors of the economy shutting down for an unknowable period of time. Americans were still able to eat at restaurants, go see a movie and buy toilet paper. We still expected baseball and NASCAR to start on schedule and entertain us through the summer months.
The Present Crisis
Currently, we are in the midst of a steep upward slope of the much-talked-of curve that could sicken a million or so Americans and kill a few hundred thousand. The epidemic’s ultimate trajectory, however, depends upon a number of factors, like whether sufficiently widespread social distancing can be maintained, if critical medical supplies and equipment stocks can be replenished and if the country’s fragile healthcare infrastructure can avoid collapsing under the pressure of an anticipated national surge in the near future. None of these are guaranteed as we’ve seen many examples of people willfully ignoring distancing recommendations and medical services in major population centers teetering on the brink of systemic failure [2] [3]. Every day or two there is some new record set for infections or deaths while we’re receiving contradictory information on whether or not we should be wearing masks in public. There are massive Navy hospital ships anchored in New York and Los Angeles, but they are offering little in the way of mercy or comfort as their missions are unclear and their ability to be integrated into the larger COVID-19 response is hampered by military bureaucracy and logistical confusion [4].
Through all this, we have Donald Trump and his ‘COVID cadre’ (which includes luminaries such as Mike Pence and Jared Kushner) making daily remarks about the unfolding disaster and trying to convey the appearance of leadership and decisiveness in spite of the fact none of them knew what a coronavirus was at the beginning of January. Back then, experts were just liberal whinners and people calling for preparedness were America-hating alarmists. However, Trump seems to have adjusted his stance, even going so far as to share lectern time with Drs. Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci. What then are we to make of this abrupt change in attitude and the apparent tempering of Trump’s ‘my way or the highway’ approach to governing? Why is ‘The Donald’ seemingly willing, even eager, to embrace knowledgeable individuals and not just loyal toadies and GOP lapdogs (Pence and Kushner excluded)? The answer, in large part, is that COVID-19 has become the most important determinant in whether Donald J. Trump will remain president or not.
On one side, Democratic challenger-apparent, Joe Biden, has been mostly forgotten in a world where mass-gatherings are forbidden and virtual campaigning has proven challenging at best. Trump, however, has been given countless hours of camera time and, mostly thanks to Senator Mitch McConnell, shook of the yoke of impeachment back in February. However, the economy, the peg upon which he has hung his hat for years, has not only faltered under the threat of COVID-19, but has retreated. Over 6 million Americans have suddenly found themselves out of work and the government has had to scramble to come up with a response, one that currently carries a sticker of $2.2 trillion. There’s no real timeline for when shops and industry might reopen, and there is still no telling how many people will fall ill or perish as a result of the virus. As a result, the administration is at the mercy of an unseen enemy that can’t be tweeted out of existence or dismissed as a fabrication of the corrupt leftist media.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a real threat to people up and down the socio-economic ladder and its capabilities are easily seen and felt by people of all political dispositions. So far, the worst impacted areas are blue west coast and northeast states that wouldn’t vote for Trump anyhow, but there is concern that southern and midwestern states could soon become overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients and that could possibly shift support away from the incumbent, especially in ‘purple’ states like North Carolina and Virginia. Unlike previous controversies and scandals in which Trump could rally his base and near-base by chalking them up to vague conspiracies and Democratic persecution, blame for a poorly executed response will almost certainly fall on Trump’s desk. It’s one thing to try and deflect blame for abstract things like ‘abuse of power’; it’s a very different thing when people are dying in the streets from a virus you, less than 90 days earlier, emphatically said was no big deal [5].
The Future Fallout
Ninety days from now will be July 3rd, the day before Independence Day. There is a good chance many states will still be limiting movement and an even better chance that most of the country’s festivities will be canceled. Whether or not we’re on the downward slope of the coronavirus curve is unclear. Most likely, the worst will be behind us, but the threat of reinfection looms large. What will the death toll be? It is impossible to say. With so many shortcomings, mistakes and flat out failures in the American response to COVID-19, it’s entirely possible our final tally will dwarf the rest of the world. Presumably, the last few governors currently balking from issuing stay-at-home decrees will have done so by this time, but the matter of whether that was too little too late is open [6]. What the nation looks like in three months and how well its citizens have weathered the plague will be more important than any recollection of the Dow Jones Industrial Average toying with 30,000. If a quarter million die in the coming months because Donald Trump couldn’t prepare for a storm experts saw coming weeks in advance, that will be his legacy and that will cost him re-election. If the ‘COVID Spring’ pans out as badly as some are projecting, Donald Trump will end up wishing he had been convicted in the Senate and forced out of office because he will never be able to escape the coronavirus shadow and no amount of social media ranting will remove the stain.
References
[1] Holshue, Michelle L., et al. “First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States”. The New England Journal of Medicine, 31 January 2020. Online at: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191
[2] Marsh, Julia, Tina Moore and Ben Feuerherd. “Crowds ignore social distancing rules to watch USNS Comfort”. New York Post, 30 March 2020. Online at: https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/crowds-ignore-social-distancing-rules-to-watch-usns-comfort/
[3] “‘They’re All on Fire’: NYC Per Diem Doc Warns of Hospitals’ Capacity to Fight Virus”. NBC New York, 1 April 2020. Online at: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/theyre-all-on-fire-nyc-per-diem-doctor-sounds-alarm-on-hospitals-capacity-to-fight-coronavirus/2354174/
[4] Correll, Diana Stancy. “Just 18 total patients were sent this week to the USNS Mercy, Comfort”. Navy Times, 2 April 2020. Online at: https://www.navytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/02/just-18-patients-combined-were-sent-to-the-usns-mercy-comfort-this-week/
[5] Greenberg, Jon. “Timeline: How Donald Trump responded to the coronavirus pandemic”. PolitiFact, 20 March 2020 (Updated 1 April 2020). Online at: https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/mar/20/how-donald-trump-responded-coronavirus-pandemic/
[6] Ortiz, Jorge L. “Coronavirus in the US: How all 50 states are responding — and why there is no federal stay-at-home order”. USA Today, 30 March 2020 (Updated 3 April 2020). Online at: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/30/coronavirus-stay-home-shelter-in-place-orders-by-state/5092413002/
